Melbourne Cup: what it takes to win

The race that stops the nation® has an honour roll of outstanding stayers, and each name tells a story.

Even in the past ten years alone, we still have Michelle Payne and Prince Of Penzance pulling off the unthinkable.

We remember Vow And Declare and Craig Williams bursting along the rails and Twilight Payment going all the way in a “Cup we’ll never forget”. 

McDonald, high in the irons aboard darling mare Verry Elleegant, and Without A Fight completing the Cups double.

All great Melbourne Cups from a viewing perspective, but not all of the same quality once the dust settles. Using Racing & Sports ratings, we can quantify what it takes to win a Melbourne Cup, and who in this year’s field is rated up to that standard.

Protectionist was dominant over a strong field in 2014 and holds the call as the highest rated winner of the Melbourne Cup in the past ten years, just edging out Verryy Elleegant who was outstanding with her weight in 2021.

While no horses in this year’s field are up around that level yet, we often see horse’s run a new peak with the best stayer rising to the occasion and producing something they hadn’t done prior.

This year, the highest rated horse going in, and one of just two horses to be rated up to a typical Melbourne Cup winning standard, is Buckaroo.

He holds a peak Racing & Sports rating of 124 and is coming off excellent runs in strong lead up races.

Gelded at the beginning of this campaign, Buckaroo looked the winner in the Turnbull Stakes over 2000m at Flemington when just edged out by Via Sistina, who subsequently won the Cox Plate with a worl-class rating of 132.

Buckaroo was then unlucky not to win the Caulfield Cup, getting into an awkward spot and left with too much chasing to do late, and chase he did. He was easily the fastest home in that race with big margins back through the field.

Whether he stays 3200m is the query, but his Caulfield Cup run was a classic Melbourne Cup trial and off that, it’s hard to say he won’t run the journey.

Vauban returns to Flemington as the second-highest rated horse on the Racing & Sports ratings, holding a peak rating of 122 when second to superstar stayer Kyprios in the Group 1 Irish St Leger last time out.

There is no doubting Vauban’s talent. He started favourite last year in what was a stronger Melbourne Cup by the pre-race ratings but was clearly below his best. He has to get things right on the day and handle the big occasion, but if he’s learnt from last year, he rates highly.

As the Melbourne Cup is a handicap, weights play a big part in who wins, and with Racing & Sports ratings influenced by weights, we can see who rates well with their assigned weight.

Even with second top weight of 54.5kg, Buckaroo is the highest rated horse at the weights in this year’s Melbourne Cup field. Others to possess a rating that has them up to the likely winning standard are Kovalica, Onesmoothoperator, Zardozi and Sea King.