Ad Gold Trip (FR) ridden by Mark Zahra wins the Lexus Melbourne Cup at Flemington on November 01, 2022. (Brett Holburt/Racing Photos)

Is running on Turnbull Stakes Day the ticket to Melbourne Cup glory?

4 October 2024 Written by VRC

Races run on TAB Turnbull Stakes Day have a history of predicting Lexus Melbourne Cup success, with six of the last eight Australian-trained Cup champions using it as a key stepping stone in their path to victory.

While not a guarantee, a strong performance in the Group 1 TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000m) or Group 3 The Bart Cummings (2500m) often hints at a horse’s staying potential and ability to handle the two-mile challenge of the race that stops a nation®.

In 2022, Gold Trip (FR) ran fifth in the Turnbull, setting the scene for his victory in the Lexus Melbourne Cup that same year. While connections were hoping for a back-to-back win when he then won the Turnbull in 2023, it was not to be, with the French-bred horse coming in at 17th.

Verry Elleegant (NZ) finished a respectable fourth in the 2021 Turnbull Stakes before conquering the Melbourne Cup just weeks later. This mighty mare proved that even without a Turnbull victory, a strong showing can signal a horse’s readiness for the ultimate test.

Fourth place in the Turnbull seems to be a recurring theme for Melbourne Cup champions. Vow And Declare also claimed fourth in the 2019 Turnbull before his memorable Lexus Melbourne Cup victory. Does the Turnbull provide the perfect platform for these stayers to fine-tune their form and stamina ahead of the big race?

Fiorente (IRE), the 2013 Melbourne Cup champion, was also a fourth-place finisher, going onto a third placing in the Cox Plate before claiming the Lexus Melbourne Cup for champion trainer, Gai Waterhouse.

Almandin (GER), the 2016 Melbourne Cup winner, showcased his staying prowess by winning The Bart Cummings (a key lead-up race to the Lexus Melbourne Cup) held on Turnbull Stakes Day.

And let’s not forget Green Moon (IRE), who stormed to victory in the 2012 Turnbull Stakes before claiming the Lexus Melbourne Cup crown.

While the races on TAB Turnbull Stakes Day provide a valuable indicator, it’s important to remember that the Lexus Melbourne Cup is a unique race with its own set of challenges. Factors like barrier draws, track conditions, and the unpredictable nature of racing can all play a part.

However, one thing is clear: the day has earned its place as a crucial stepping stone on the road to Melbourne Cup glory. Will history repeat itself? Only time will tell.

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