Sky Racing form expert David Gately agrees. He says every horse has a different power-to-weight ratio – in other words, some horses can carry weight better than others. But he says the secret to picking the winner is to find a lower-performed horse, with a lesser weight, that is capable of reaching the levels of the best-performed horses at its next run.
“They are beating the handicapper, so to speak,” Gately says. “They are only getting 51 or 52 kilos, whereas Gold Trip is getting 58.5kg because he already has the runs on the board.”
Hegan emphasises that a horse like Vauban, an Irish stayer venturing to Australia for the first time, has the potential to fit that profile because he is so lightly raced.
He states, “We have weighted him up to his best for what we have seen so far, but he might show us, as a lot of Cup winners do, that he can go on to be a much better horse, and go on to be competitive at weight for age.”
Moreover, Hegan underscores the ability of superior horses like Gold Trip, who routinely shoulder 58.5kg in their races, to handle substantial weights. “But every horse has a threshold, ultimately unknown, at which a weight will inhibit performance,” Hegan says.
Hegan says that some horses perform consistently in the 50-52kg weight range, with no noticeable change in their performance until they reach the 54-56kg bracket.
Without A Fight is another fascinating case study. He won the Caulfield Cup (2400m), carrying 55.5kg, and beat Gold Trip by two lengths. But he was penalised 1kg for that win and will have to carry 56.5kg for the 3200m of the Melbourne Cup – it might be enough to turn the tables.
The sliding weight scale not only has an effect on a horse’s ability to win, but also the availability and suitability of riders. This is because a jockey has to ride at the horse’s weight. Lightweight superstar Jamie Kah rode import Valiant King in the Caulfield Cup because she comfortably made the horse’s allocation of 50kg.
Past Cup winner Craig Williams is another highly decorated lightweight jockey. He has been booked to partner French mare Lastotchka at 51kg in this year’s race.
But some of the country’s top hoops such as Damien Oliver and Hugh Bowman are middleweights and have struggled to secure rides, simply because there are not enough suitable runners to go around – only seven horses will carry 55kg or more this year, and two of those are internationals with international jockeys.
Three-time Cup winner Oliver was handed a late lifeline just nine days before the race, however, when he was asked to partner Mike Moroney’s outsider Alenquer (56.5kg) in what will be his last Melbourne Cup.
“Whether he can win it or not I'm not sure, but I’m sure he can finish closer to the front. He is not without a chance,” Oliver told the Herald Sun.
Gately says as a punter he is less concerned about the right jockey being on the right horse. “I think I am a bit of an outlier in that regard … I place much less credence on the jockey. I think the horse is the athlete and that tends to be my focus,” he says.
